Amount earned vs. amount pledged

Can we make it so that Graphtreon has access to these stats:

  • Amount pledged
  • Last month’s processed pledge $
  • Last month’s declined pledge $

I love Graphtreon, the per-day stats are great. However, since Patreon is only showing it an estimate of my projected earnings, everybody’s graphs have these striking stair-step patterns in them.

I’m not quite sure how Patreon estimates my ‘current earnings’, but I THINK this is what’s happening:

Let’s say that on Jan 29 I have 1000, one-dollar patrons. For various reasons, on Jan 31st, 20% of those pledges don’t go through, so my current earnings are $800*.

Then, as February ticks onwards I lose a few patrons, gain more. Let’s say my net gain is 100 new one-dollar patrons. Patreon gleefully predicts that I’m now going to make $900 … $800 plus $100.

Unfortunately, this is just optimism - like every other patron, some of those new 100 aren’t going to be able to pay, so when Feb 28th comes around, the actual amount of pledges processed is closer to $880.

In short, the problem with Graphtreon’s data is that Patreon is adding up two unlike things - processed dollars, and new pledges.

What I wish Patreon would do is either:

  1. Pro-rate new pledges, so that it takes my campaign’s historical decline rate into account when estimating what I’m going to earn.

  2. OR, just got out of the predicting business altogether. Just show me my last month’s decline rate and my current pledge total.